The global aviation industry is bracing for a prolonged jet fuel crisis, even as the critical Strait of Hormuz begins to reopen following weeks of geopolitical tension.
According to International Air Transport Association Director General Willie Walsh, the road to recovery will not be immediate. While the reopening of this key oil transit route brings some relief, the deeper damage to supply chains—particularly refining capacity in the Middle East—means the aviation sector will continue to feel the strain for months.
Speaking in Singapore, Walsh emphasized that restoring balance in jet fuel supply is a slow process. Even if crude oil begins flowing normally again, the disruption to refining operations has created a bottleneck that cannot be resolved overnight.
The situation escalated after weeks of conflict in the Middle East severely restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a channel responsible for transporting nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas. This disruption sent shockwaves across global markets, driving up crude oil prices and, in turn, aviation fuel costs.
A temporary breakthrough came when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, allowing Tehran to reopen the strategic waterway. The agreement followed heightened tensions and a looming military deadline set by Donald Trump.
Despite this progress, Walsh cautioned that the industry should not expect a rapid return to normalcy. The concentration of refining capacity in specific regions has made the global fuel supply chain more vulnerable than many had realized.
For airlines and passengers alike, the consequences are becoming increasingly clear. As fuel prices remain elevated, airlines are likely to pass these costs on to consumers through higher ticket prices—a move Walsh described as “inevitable.”
In the meantime, some airlines outside the Middle East have temporarily benefited from rerouted air traffic. However, Walsh believes this shift is short-lived. The dominance and capacity of Gulf-based carriers are expected to reassert themselves quickly once stability returns.
