Japan has formally urged China to revoke its newly announced export controls on products with potential military applications, in a move that could escalate tensions between the two nations. The measures, which may include crucial rare earth minerals, were described by Japan as “unacceptable” and a serious concern for its economy and security.
China’s commerce ministry announced yesterday that it would “strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan,” effective immediately. While the statement did not list specific products, it has sparked fears in Tokyo that supplies of rare earth minerals—vital for technologies ranging from smartphones to fighter jets—could be restricted.
This development follows increased diplomatic strain after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested last November that Japan might respond militarily to any attack on Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out taking it by force. At the same time, China has criticized Japan’s growing military capabilities, adding further fuel to the dispute.
Reacting swiftly, Masaaki Kanai, secretary general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau at Japan’s foreign ministry, lodged a strong protest with Shi Yong, deputy chief of mission at the Chinese embassy. Kanai described the new measures as “deeply regrettable, a deviation from international practice, and absolutely unacceptable.”
The significance of China’s announcement is still debated. Over 70 percent of Japan’s rare earth imports come from China, despite Tokyo’s efforts to diversify supply chains after a similar dispute in 2010. Experts say China’s statement may have been intentionally vague, signaling pressure on Japan to adopt a more conciliatory stance.
Global risk consultancy Teneo noted, “The impact of the new measures could range from symbolic to highly disruptive. Even a small disruption could pressure Japan to adjust its policies toward China.”
Economists warn of serious economic consequences if rare earths are included in the controls. Takahide Kiuchi of Nomura Research Institute estimated that a three-month ban could cost Japan around 660 billion yen ($4.2 billion) and reduce GDP by 0.11 percent. Critical materials such as dysprosium and terbium, essential for electric vehicle motors, rely almost entirely on Chinese supply.
Japan’s government remains cautious in its public response. Top spokesman Minoru Kihara declined to comment on the economic impact, citing “numerous unclear points, including the scope of the measures.”
As this diplomatic tug-of-war unfolds, the stakes are high not just for governments, but for industries and everyday consumers in Japan who depend on these materials for technology and innovation. The coming weeks could reveal whether this is a symbolic warning or a sign of deeper disruption in the global supply chain.
